NQ[M5], Short, Support/Resistance
Entry: 4263
Stop: 4320
Target: 4066
Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.46
2-month support line, similar in structure to the E-Mini Dow. Decided to enter positions here and in the E-Mini Dow as they offer better structures than the E-Mini S&P 500 right now. While entering shorts in both E-Mini Nasdaq and E-Mini Dow are essentially the same trade, decided to go into both simultaneously as the chart structures are sound and I have a bearish view on all the indices.
YM[M5], Short, Support/Resistance
Entry: 17511
Stop: 17750
Target: 17000
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.14
2-month support line broken, targeting 17000 and at least to the midpoint of the 4-year channel. Also has been some downward pressure for the past month, pressing down around the 17550 level.
3/30: *$107,301.58
4/3: *$103,233.72
PL%: -2.70%
Got hammered this past week with a number of trades that went the wrong way. Perhaps the most frustrating trade was my short position on Palladium, which first started trending nicely but then whipped back within the range of the consolidated channel. Another frustrating trade was my short on Natural Gas, which also started off nicely before getting stopped out for a smaller loss. While Natural Gas broke the symmetrical triangle pattern, it bounced right off the support line of 2.585.
Despite the big loss for the week combined with the subpar performance in March, I know that more opportunities will present themselves in the future. I believe these tough times make the difference between traders who make it and those who don’t. You can’t get emotional, take the losses personally, get discouraged, and give up. I’m confident in my system and in myself and I look forward to a fresh week of opportunities.
I carry three open positions into next week: long US 2-Year, short Cocoa, and short Oats.
*Numbers based off adjusted starting capital amount of $100,000
Palladium, Short
Entry: 737.90
Exit: 750
PL%: -$430/contract
Natural Gas, Short
Entry: 2.69
Exit: 2.71
PL%: -$200/contract
Sugar, Short
Entry: 11.97
Exit: 12.40
PL%: -$481.60/contract
Not a good day today, got stopped out of a lot of my positions and shed about 5% of my total portfolio in the last week and a half. Palladium and Natural Gas were trending down but spiked up. For Palladium, it’s possible it will trend down again and that my stop was too close while for Natural Gas, it bounced right off the flat support line.
Although it’s been tough, going to stick with the system as I know there will be more opportunities in the future.
Long
Entry: 162.475
Exit: 161.40
PL%: -$430/contract
This trade never got going so I moved the stop up and decided to exit. If something doesn’t trend within the first few days, I believe you run a higher risk holding on to it with no clear purpose.
ZO[K5], Short, Symmetrical Triangle
Entry: 267.25
Stop: 275
Target: 240
Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.52
2-month symmetrical triangle pattern. With the 3 month downtrend before the symmetrical triangle, believe this breakout can be a possible continuation of the downtrend. Although Oats is thinly traded, I can still put this trade on as I have a smaller capital base.
3/1: *$107,242.53
3/31: *$106,102.05
PL%: -1.06%
Best Trade of the Month: Silver, SI[K5], Long, +$2,850 per contract
Worst Trade of the Month: Palladium, PA[M5], Short, -$1,475 per contract
If you’ve been following my trades and weekly recaps this past month, you’ll know that it’s been choppy and stressful. Each time I approached the high watermark and inched past it slightly, my trading results hit a wall and I retreated and I close out this month on such a retreat. While I hit my target ratio of profitable/unprofitable trades (33%), I still experienced a down month. Since my capital risk per trade is still hovering around 1%, this makes me believe that I’m entering too many trades that have unfavorable risk/reward ratios (under 3:1). I caught myself entering a few trades with technical patterns of 1-month or less and have since cut those out.
My metals and indices trades performed the best while my grains and softs trades performed the worst. My shorts far outperformed my longs. I enter April with 6 open positions, Long in US 2-Year and Live Cattle, and Short in Palladium, Natural Gas, Cocoa, and Sugar.
I’m currently up +10.40% YTD.
*Numbers based off adjusted starting capital amount of $100,000
SB[K5], Short, Channel
Entry: 11.97
Stop: 12.4
Target: 10.8
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.72
1.5-year downward channel, broke below. Even though it’s at all-time lows, I’m not going to let that scare me. I’m going to stick with the trend and go with the trade that’s being signaled. Risk is significantly lower than most trades, at just 0.5% of total capital.
CC[K5], Short, Channel
Entry: 2687
Stop: 2790
Target: 2400
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.78
2-month channel, broke below. Only concern is that the support line isn’t as well developed as the resistance line in the channel. If it trends, has the potential to move down quite a bit.
Long
Entry: 16.13
Exit: 16.70
PL%: 3.53%
Got stopped out of silver today. This was a great trade that had one giant move up on Friday the 20th and inched up a bit more before losing steam last Friday and today. Silver is in a 2-year downward wedge. If I do enter another position with Silver, I’ll probably wait until it breaks the 15.4 support line and look for it to reach the bottom of the current wedge.
JL Nexus 