Update: Coffee and Live Cattle, 2/25/15

Exited both Coffee and Live Cattle positions today. Will break down both below:

Coffee, Short
Entry: 156.40
Exit: 149.40
PL%: 4.48%

My initial target was 149, so I adjusted the stop tight last night. This was a very profitable trade, but as you can see, Coffee made a huge move down today and I left a lot of extra $ on the table. However, whenever I hit my initial price targets, unless I set a secondary and/or tertiary price target beforehand, I like to exit and regroup rather than keeping open positions with no clear objective. I understand that missing big moves like this can happen within my parameters, but it’s something I can live with.

Live Cattle, Short
Entry: 148.50
Exit: 146
PL%: 1.68

My original target was 143, but I tightened up my stop from 150.50 to 146 last night and subsequently got stopped out today. Based on the chart structure, I couldn’t justify waiting for the additional 3 point move to the risk I would have had on if I had left the stop at it’s original level of 150.50. I could have adjusted the stop to between 150.50 and 146, but that would have been a “scared” protective move, an arbitrary stop level that could give some $ back with no real purpose. I’ve realized this is a fine line, when to leave enough slack on the stops to absorb pull backs until the trend continues versus giving everything back when the additional profit potential was minimal.

Update: Soybean Meal, 2/22/15

Entry: 344
Exit: 348.30
PL%: +1.25%

Decided to manually exit the trade early with a small profit for a few reasons. I traded the March contract which currently isn’t the front contract (it’s currently May). Although the open interest is still fairly high for the March, I didn’t feel comfortable holding on to it. Secondly, I’ve realized that if a chart doesn’t run within the first few days after it breaks out, it gets more and more likely that the trend won’t run. I’ve gotten burned in the past, prematurely dumping a position only to have it run. However, I can live with this as it’s built into my particular system.

I’ve learned that for any trade or position, if it just doesn’t feel right for any reason, it’s better to get out of it than to hold on and gamble. More often than not, your instincts are correct. If your gut proves to be wrong on a particular trade and it runs after you unload it, at least you can still sleep better at night and know that there will be more opportunities in the future.

Update: Cotton, 2/19/15

Entry: 62.36
Exit: 64.33
PL%: +3.16%

My initial target for this trade was 65.5, which it touched briefly before coming back down. Last night I had adjusted my stop from 61 to 64.5 to lock in some profits. With some slippage, the trade exited at 64.33 for a nice profit.

 

 

Update: E-Mini Nasdaq, 2/18/15

Entry: 4342.75
Exit: 4348.5
PL%: +0.96%

Decided to manually exit the trade today. I’ve never been comfortable holding on to positions that hit all-time highs for too long as they will almost certainly fade a bit. Here it looks like the chart has hit some resistance around the 4390 level. If it does close above, I’d be open to re-entering the trade again.